All Reports:

August 4, 2026

The War Trade

By Terence W. Brogan

Today we’re extending yesterday’s report because it’s clear to us that the War Trade is back on the table. I define the War Trade as a combination of rising inflation (Crude Oil) and rising cost…

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August 3, 2026

Markets Face a Geopolitical Reality Check

By Bob Brogan

“I think we just want to win,” President Trump said during a Cabinet meeting Friday when asked about ending the war. “We’ll be hitting them very hard, and, you know, at some point, they’re going…

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August 3, 2026

The Trump, Warsh & Bessent Bailout Show ~ Yen Bailout = US Bailout

By Terence W. Brogan

July 9th was our last report on the Yen Carry Trade and If we know the Yen and the Carry Trade have a very strong positive correlation with rising U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, then it’s…

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July 29, 2026

America’s AI hangover

By Bob Brogan

America’s AI hangover has officially arrived as enterprises realize that burning through annual AI budgets on frontier models for every basic task is financially unsustainable. Markets are now sharply unwinding the hype as infrastructure capital…

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July 29, 2026

Guns & Butter

By Terence W. Brogan

This weekend Guns & Roses is playing in Hershey, PA, and they couldn’t be performing at a more fitting time. We have an economy and society running on “guns and butter,” a phrase that used…

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July 28, 2026

Margin Debt and Rising Rates Create a Dangerous Late-Cycle Setup

By Bob Brogan

The market’s greatest risk is no longer any single event. It is the convergence of three powerful macro forces: resurgent energy inflation, unprecedented AI capital spending financed by increasingly expensive debt, and rising Treasury yields…

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July 28, 2026

Cyclicals Outperforming S&P500 Equal Weight ~ Money Flow Model Outperformed Both

By Terence W. Brogan

I was looking at this chart over the weekend and was struck by the sheer outperformance of the Cyclicals (Value Stocks) — Financials, Industrials, Materials, Energy, Discretionary, and Equal‑Weighted Tech — versus the S&P 500…

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July 27, 2026

Money Flow Model Still Deeply Negative

By Terence W. Brogan

Today we’re starting the week with a look at the Money Flow Model, which remains deeply negative even as the market continues to trade around all‑time highs. This divergence between weak broad‑based buying pressure/closing power…

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July 27, 2026

Markets Face a Dangerous Convergence of Risks

By Bob Brogan

Markets periodically absorb one risk after another with little lasting damage. This is no longer one of those periods. Investors are now confronting a dangerous convergence of persistent inflation, rising Treasury yields, higher energy prices,…

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July 24, 2026

Déjà Vue1999

By Bob Brogan

Both our daily and weekly market analysis confirm that U.S. stock and bond markets have broken below key technical support levels, signaling a severe cyclical bear market based on our Money Flow and Relative Performance…

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July 24, 2026

Risk Management ~ Avoiding Excessive Drawdowns

By Terence W. Brogan

Today I want to talk about what makes The Brogan Group Equity Research truly special — and different from any other technical research shop on Wall Street. In two words, it is Risk Management. We…

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July 23, 2026

Market Warning: Why We Continue to Expect a Washout Decline

By Bob Brogan

Barron’s notes the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) has fallen to one of its lowest levels since 2007, as 30-year Treasury yields now exceed the S&P 500 earnings yield. Reuters reports that renewed Middle East tensions…

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July 23, 2026

10 Yr T-Note Yield Buy Signal; Crude Oil Buy Signal; Inverted VIX Sell Signal; Non-Cyclical Equity Buy Signal

By Terence W. Brogan

Today we have a very important report, as we are getting Intermarket Bearish Signals for the stock market. As the title notes, we are recording a Sell Signal on the Inverted VIX (volatility moving higher),…

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July 22, 2026

Hedge Funds Post Worst Monthly Loss in Four Years; Goldman Says Market Bottom Not Yet In!

By Bob Brogan

Global hedge funds suffered their worst monthly decline since 2022 in March, with Goldman Sachs estimating fundamental funds fell 5.4%, pushing year-to-date returns to -1.4%. Despite the sharp selloff, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say…

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July 22, 2026

High Beta Money Flow & Relative Performance Breadth Sell Signal

By Terence W. Brogan

Today we’re highlighting one of our favorite measures of market risk: the S&P 500 High Beta Index, paired with its Money Flow and Relative Performance breadth, along with the momentum/rate‑of‑change signal captured through the Breadth…

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