The Trump-Xi summit will dominate the headlines and may move markets for a day or two. But the bigger investment story sits beneath the diplomacy. Regardless of the outcome, the AI race and the scramble…

Oil is no longer simply an energy-sector trade. Oil is now a market-wide risk indicator. If crude turns higher again while the 10-year yield moves back through 5%, that combination would tell us that inflation…

The market is coiling and the Nasdaq is trapped inside a huge triangle, the S&P refuses to leave its range and Russell is sitting on major long-term support. Oil is driving rates, rates are driving…

Light Crude Oil Futures are trading near $102.26, with our weekly Money Flow turning positive and the weekly TRIX confirming improving momentum. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, suggesting crude could continue higher toward our upper…

The Federal Reserve has a problem that cannot be solved with one interest-rate instrument. It is being asked to deal with two very different problems at the same time: inflation and economic growth. The Fed…

The U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 99.65, but the chart continues to show a damaged longer-term structure. The important levels are 102.20–104.90 on the upside, while the chart identifies 95.29 and 93.46 as the…

Two weeks ago Treasury started buying back its own long-dated debt to push yields down.This week the Fed is set to raise short-term rates to push inflation down.One arm of the government is trying to…

Since last May-June of this year, I have experienced a very strong sense that, much like the late fall of 1999, when the dot-com stock market finally topped out in early 2000 and crashed, the…

This is no longer about valuation. It is about positioning and liquidity. When correlations go to one, diversification disappears. When leverage comes off, fundamentals can stop mattering in the short term. And when everyone reaches…

Volatility is waking up, but the stock market still isn’t paying attention. Oil volatility, yen volatility, skew, and VVIX are all flashing warning signs while index volatility remains unusually quiet. That disconnect matters. With CPI…