June 10th was the last time we reviewed Low Beta and Low Momentum, where we issued a Bull Report. Today we’re expanding and reiterating that work by pairing those factors with their counterparts—High Beta and…

The stock market may be making new highs, but beneath the surface, the risk picture is deteriorating. Technology leadership remains hesitant, long-term Treasury yields have surged above 5%—their highest level since 2007—and rising yields are…

July 28th was our last update on the Growth/Value trade, and with this strong bear‑market rally in Growth since Scott Bessent attempted to halt the rise in U.S. bond yields, we wanted to bring everyone…

Gold: The Most Compelling Defensive Investment Opportunity of the Decade History teaches us that the greatest investment opportunities emerge when governments accumulate excessive debt, monetary policy falls behind inflation, and investor confidence in paper currencies…

Today we’re looking at the Money Flow Model, which remains deeply negative even as the market is back to all‑time highs. This divergence between weak broad‑based buying pressure/closing power and rising market prices continues to…

Gold has climbed above $4,100 per ounce and is heading toward its first monthly gain since the Middle East conflict began. The advance has come despite renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, which…

The U.S. military did, in fact, strike three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities. That fact is no longer in serious dispute. The targeted sites included:• Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (deep underground uranium enrichment facility)• Natanz…

Today we’re extending yesterday’s report because it’s clear to us that the War Trade is back on the table. I define the War Trade as a combination of rising inflation (Crude Oil) and rising cost…

“I think we just want to win,” President Trump said during a Cabinet meeting Friday when asked about ending the war. “We’ll be hitting them very hard, and, you know, at some point, they’re going…

July 9th was our last report on the Yen Carry Trade and If we know the Yen and the Carry Trade have a very strong positive correlation with rising U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields, then it’s…

America’s AI hangover has officially arrived as enterprises realize that burning through annual AI budgets on frontier models for every basic task is financially unsustainable. Markets are now sharply unwinding the hype as infrastructure capital…

This weekend Guns & Roses is playing in Hershey, PA, and they couldn’t be performing at a more fitting time. We have an economy and society running on “guns and butter,” a phrase that used…

The market’s greatest risk is no longer any single event. It is the convergence of three powerful macro forces: resurgent energy inflation, unprecedented AI capital spending financed by increasingly expensive debt, and rising Treasury yields…

I was looking at this chart over the weekend and was struck by the sheer outperformance of the Cyclicals (Value Stocks) — Financials, Industrials, Materials, Energy, Discretionary, and Equal‑Weighted Tech — versus the S&P 500…

Today we’re starting the week with a look at the Money Flow Model, which remains deeply negative even as the market continues to trade around all‑time highs. This divergence between weak broad‑based buying pressure/closing power…