As we’ve been noting for several weeks, Jeff deGraaf and team have been shorting SOXX at the 50‑day moving average. But as we all know, bulls, bears, and pigs — nothing lasts forever. On Friday,…

Oil is no longer simply an energy-sector trade. Oil is now a market-wide risk indicator. If crude turns higher again while the 10-year yield moves back through 5%, that combination would tell us that inflation…

Today we’re starting the week by reviewing the Money Flow Model, which remains negative, though it does appear to be attempting to bottom. The intermediate‑term moving‑average slope is flattening — an essential early step before…

The market is coiling and the Nasdaq is trapped inside a huge triangle, the S&P refuses to leave its range and Russell is sitting on major long-term support. Oil is driving rates, rates are driving…

Light Crude Oil Futures are trading near $102.26, with our weekly Money Flow turning positive and the weekly TRIX confirming improving momentum. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, suggesting crude could continue higher toward our upper…

As my father taught me 25 years ago when I entered this business: “If you want to know what inflation is doing, simply look at the CRB Index — it will tell you everything you…

The most important question to ask when identifying where to make money is simple: Where is the primary bull market? Today, that answer is clear to us (and to everyone): the bull market remains in…

The Federal Reserve has a problem that cannot be solved with one interest-rate instrument. It is being asked to deal with two very different problems at the same time: inflation and economic growth. The Fed…

Over the past several weeks, I’ve been up late every night working with Claude — burning the midnight oil — and I’ll admit, I’m addicted to the answers it’s giving me. My wife has even…

The U.S. Dollar Index is trading around 99.65, but the chart continues to show a damaged longer-term structure. The important levels are 102.20–104.90 on the upside, while the chart identifies 95.29 and 93.46 as the…

We’ve been saying for several years—since 2022—that rates have entered a new regime, one we haven’t seen since the 1970s–80s when rates were in a secular bull market. There’s an old Wall Street adage: “Trade…

Two weeks ago Treasury started buying back its own long-dated debt to push yields down.This week the Fed is set to raise short-term rates to push inflation down.One arm of the government is trying to…

Since last May-June of this year, I have experienced a very strong sense that, much like the late fall of 1999, when the dot-com stock market finally topped out in early 2000 and crashed, the…

Today we’re looking at the Money Flow Model, which remains deeply negative even as the market is hovering around all‑time highs. This divergence between weak broad‑based buying pressure/closing power and rising market prices continues to…

This is no longer about valuation. It is about positioning and liquidity. When correlations go to one, diversification disappears. When leverage comes off, fundamentals can stop mattering in the short term. And when everyone reaches…