AI Trade Showing Strain Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, the AI trade has effectively been the market. A small group of AI-linked companies has driven the majority of gains, earnings growth, and…

Last Friday we issued a Sell Signal on our Relative Performance Breadth of Small & Mid-Caps versus Large Caps here in the USA. Well, today we are looking around the world for Relative Performance Sell…

Gold continues to transition from a cyclical inflation hedge into a structural asset tied to global financial stability. The underlying driver is no longer just CPI trends, but growing concern around sovereign debt sustainability—particularly in…

Today we are going to look at the Relative Performance Breadth of the two most important industry groups in the stock market today, Semiconductors versus Software. What we can see is Semis are the strongest…

The U.S. Dollar & Physical Gold The most likely resolution is not a single event, but a combination of forces that gradually rebalance the system. First, interest rates will do part of the work. Higher…

Over the past two months we have seen more volatility in our Money Flow Model than we have ever seen in 32-year history of the data series. The Model turned Bearish April 2nd and then…

Our Money Flow Model turned Bearish March 31st moving us back to a defensive, non-cyclical position and will be in that position until our model turns positive again. Today we want to look at our…

U.S. equities are showing growing internal strain beneath the surface strength. While the “Mag 7” continue to push indices higher, market breadth has deteriorated sharply. The ratio of advancing to declining stocks on up days…

Below are charts of the % S&P500 Stocks with Short Interest greater than 10 million and less than 10 million shares borrowed (inverted). I saw a chart of IGV on X with short interest at…

Today we are showing the Money Flow Model again because we cannot ignore the significant negative divergence (model lower highs as market makes higher highs). Our Money Flow Model is a measure of the closing…

Right now the market is basically caught between two possible paths. One path is the bad outcome where things get worse again especially with global tensions. The other path is the good outcome where things…

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, initiated at 10:00 a.m. ET yesterday, appears to remain in force as of this morning, with no indication of de-escalation overnight. This marks…

Today we want to look at the relative performance ratio of our Cyclicals Index versus our Non-Cyclcial index as we continue to record counter-trend divergence that we believe will lead to a regression to the…

China continues to aggressively accumulate gold rather than settle obligations, extending its central bank buying streak to roughly 17 consecutive months, signaling an ongoing structural shift in reserve strategy. While official holdings are reported at…

Today we wanted to show our Money Flow Model as it is still negative, turning negative March 31st. Since the turning back to a negative position, we are now back in our Non-Cyclcial, Defensive, Low…